Steel companies are witnessing margin pressures in Q2FY25 and this may persist until China sees growth recovery.
In previews of Q2FY25 and beyond, industry analysts are expecting a turnaround for IT services. High teens earnings per share or EPS growth is expected for the next two-three financial years. The hopes are backed by deal wins of above $100 billion as at Q1FY25, up 16.6 per cent year-on-year ( Y-o-Y).
'API prices are dragging down margins and impacting our competitive ability.'
India, the world's fifth largest economy in the world, is likely to overtake Japan to become the world's third-largest economy with a GDP of $7.3 trillion by 2030, S&P Global Market Intelligence said in its latest issue of PMI. After two years of rapid economic growth in 2021 and 2022, the Indian economy has continued to show sustained strong growth during the 2023 calendar year. India's gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow 6.2-6.3 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2024, being the fastest-growing major economy this fiscal year.
Undeterred by global credit freeze, India maintains a bullish outlook on attracting foreign direct investment which may be governed by easier rules, a top government official said.
Corporate India is starting to step up its capital expenditure plans amid government incentives and signs of rising demand, company executives and analysts have indicated. This coincides with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently citing a double-digit growth in private capital expenditure. Healthy balance sheets of banks and corporates, along with increasing capacity utilisation and improving business sentiment, are contributing to a favourable environment for sustained growth in private sector investments, the RBI said in its policy last week.
The government on Friday scrapped a minimum price threshold that it had set previously for exports of onion as it looked to pass on the benefit of international glut to Indian farmers. The government had previously fixed a $550 per tonne as the minimum export price (MEP), which essentially meant farmers could not sell their produce overseas at lower than this rate.
'India represents one of the top opportunities with robust growth, solid fundamentals, and openness to foreign investment.'
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday retained its projection for retail inflation at 4.5 per cent for the current fiscal assuming a normal monsoon, while emphasising that uncertainties related to food price outlook warrant a close monitoring. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation has been projected at 4.5 per cent with quarter-wise projections at 4.9 per cent in Q1 (April-June), 3.8 per cent in Q2, 4.6 per cent in Q3, and 4.5 per cent in Q4.
Domestic air passenger traffic grew 5.1 per cent year-on-year to an estimated 138.9 million in May and was significantly higher by around 14 per cent than pre-Covid levels, credit ratings agency Icra said on Thursday. Icra also said the outlook on the Indian aviation industry is stable amid the continued recovery in domestic and international air passenger traffic with a relatively stable cost environment and expectations of the trend continuing in FY2025.
IndiGo has delivered impressive operating performance in the past six quarters as it navigated cost and capacity challenges. It has managed to mitigate the impact of faulty engine-related groundings. The airline has also managed costs related to grounding, expensive secondary leasing, increasing airport charges, and pilot compensation inflation and delivered stronger yields and spreads.
While most analysts are expecting poor results from oil marketing companies (OMCs) in the first quarter of 2024-25 (Q1FY25) and even in the first half (H1) of FY25, GAIL (India) could be an outlier. Upstream producers, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India (OIL) could do well due to strong crude and gas prices, but refiners are likely to see weak margins and the impact of frozen prices during the election period will also be negative.
The news of Dixon Technologies (India)'s tie-up with HP in addition to its existing Lenovo and Acer partnerships has led to a 5 per cent stock uptick since the start of the week. Dixon can target roughly 60 per cent of India's addressable IT hardware market with these contracts. Dixon targets Rs 48,000 crore in revenue from IT hardware under the PLI scheme over the next six years.
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
The BJP losing its outright majority and relying on allies to form a government could pose challenges for the more ambitious elements of reform agenda like land and labour, Fitch Ratings said in a note on Wednesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led BJP lost its majority for the first time since 2014, winning 240 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha.
With the prediction of an above normal monsoon in 2024, the government is expecting food prices to come down, the finance ministry's monthly economic report for March has said. The report, released on Thursday, said robust foreign inflows and comfortable trade deficits were expected to keep the rupee within a comfortable range. "Further easing of food prices is on the anvil as IMD (India Meteorological Department) has predicted above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, which is likely to lead to higher production, assuming good spatial and temporal distribution of the rainfall," the monthly report, released by the Department of Economic Affairs, said.
Manufacturing activities in India fell to a five-month low in September as new orders rose at a softer pace, which tempered production growth, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 57.5 in September, down from 58.6 in August -- the lowest in five months. The September PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 27th straight month.
Trends in the global energy markets are crucial if India's growth outlook is to remain healthy. Prices for the Indian crude basket were averaging around $86.2 per barrel through Q1FY25 and then moderated to $84 in July and to $78-79 in August (so far). But global crude supply may outpace weak global demand in the short term.
'As China's reopening euphoria fizzled out on the back of some disappointing economic data, we saw inflows coming back to India with full force in the past 3-4 months.'
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) state of the economy report observed that any durable alignment of headline retail inflation with the target of 4 per cent could recommence in the second half of FY25 and sustain until numbers closer to the target are seen during the course of FY26, dashing hopes of any reduction in the policy repo rate in the current financial year. The report, authored by RBI staffers, including Deputy Governor in charge of monetary policy Michael Patra, said though headline numbers may fall in July and August due to base effect, it is likely to reverse in September.
'A 10 to 15 per cent allocation to gold in portfolios reduces risk without compromising on potential returns.'
The size of Reserve Bank's balance sheet increased by 11.08 per cent to Rs 70.47 lakh crore as on March 2024, leading to the highest-ever dividend payout to the government, according to the central bank's annual report. In actual terms, the increase was Rs 7,02,946.97 crore over Rs 63.45 lakh crore as on March 2023.
The RBI is fully aware that the high-cost loans and high indebtedness of the borrowers could pose financial stability risks, if not addressed by these NBFCs. Governor Shaktikanta Das has issued a stern warning, saying the RBI is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take appropriate action, if necessary, if the culprits don't opt for self-correction. Watch out for some action, soon, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
India abstained in the United Nations General Assembly on a draft resolution introduced by Pakistan and co-sponsored by China on Islamophobia, asserting that the prevalence of 'religiophobia' against Hinduism, Buddhism, Sikhism and other faiths facing violence and discrimination must also be acknowledged rather than singling out just one religion.
A resounding election victory last month for pro-business leader Narendra Modi, with the mandate to steer the economy out of its current slump and create more jobs, has revived consumer confidence in Asia's third-largest economy.
It said banks' asset quality will deteriorate across the corporate, small and medium enterprises and retail segments, leading to pressure on profitability and capital.
India decisively withstood global headwinds in 2023 and is likely to remain as the world's fastest-growing major economy on the back of growing demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rate regime and robust foreign exchange reserves. Despite widespread pessimism witnessed among the developed nations and the worsening geopolitical situation, India recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 6.1 per cent in the March quarter. The growth moved up to 7.8 per cent in the June quarter and was 7.6 per cent in the September quarter. For the first six months of this fiscal, the growth was 7.7 per cent.
Automobile, apparel and electronics are among sectors that see a sales boost during the festival season, a time when investors expect gains in related stocks. This year could be different: Analysts have factored in all positives and do not expect such stocks to deliver lucrative returns. "Indian households spend across sectors like automobiles, consumer durables, and consumer staples during the festival season.
Ratan was extremely ethical in his dealings, which he brought to bear on the business house which he helmed, remembers Sailesh Kottary.
Ever since the Quad started taking shape in 2007, China has been saying that the four-member grouping will be bound to fail. But much to the chagrin of Beijing, it picked up pace in the recent years emerging as a premier strategic group especially challenging China's assertiveness in the disputed South China Sea.
'It is not just the US and European opportunity, but it is a huge global opportunity.'
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is likely to hold pre-budget consultations with industry chambers on June 20, sources said. The budget for 2024-25 fiscal is likely to be presented in Parliament in the second half of July. Industry sources said the pre-budget consultation with Sitharaman would be preceded by a meeting with Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra on June 18.
The GDP growth for 2013-14 has been lowered to 5.3%, from 6.4% in April.
According to staffing company Teamlease for the first quarter of this fiscal year, the overall net employment outlook index made a smart turnaround to recover lost ground.
The rating agency said that the 'Baa3' sovereign rating is supported by credit strengths which include a large, diverse economy, strong gross domestic product growth as well as savings, and investment rates.
Private banks' net profit grew 26.3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 48,982 crore in the first quarter ended June 2024 (Q1FY25) owing to healthy growth in credit and other income. The gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) increased with the end of dispensation granted during the pandemic, according to the data compiled by BS Research Bureau for listed 18 private banks.
Road awards were muted in Q1FY25. But the pace will accelerate with a bidding pipeline of Rs 1.1 trillion (September 2024), mostly dominated by HAM (Hybrid Annuity Model) projects, which contribute 47 per cent and engineering procurement and construction or EPC projects, which have about 36 per cent share. Hence, infrastructure companies mostly reported revenue decline on a year-on-year (Y-o-Y) basis in Q1FY25.
In FY23, Indian operations accounted for 41.6 per cent of the consolidated revenue of India's top five multinationals, up from 34 per cent in FY18 and 33.2 per cent and 34.2 per cent in FY21.
The IMF on Tuesday projected a growth rate of 6.1 per cent for India in 2023, which is a 0.2 percentage point upward revision compared with the April projection. This is reflective of the "momentum" from stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter of 2022 as a result of stronger domestic investment, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said. "Growth in India is projected at 6.1 per cent in 2023, a 0.2 percentage point upward revision compared with the April projection," it said in its latest update of the World Economic Outlook.
'IPOs have performed exceptionally well, with a notable increase in average ticket size from Rs 800 crore in the last financial year to around Rs 1,300 crore in this financial year.'
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